Around 80-90% of subsidies for green technologies in Germany have already been paid. This is the outcome of a quantitative study of the Brandenburg University of Technology. The report ” Pay-back time: Increasing electricity prices and decreasing costs make renewable energy competitive” is published in Energy Policy magazine. The researchers chose Germany because of its early leadership in renewable energy, the investments it has made and to provide quantitative information amid the country’s debate on continued investment.
Sentiment in Germany on renewables is mixed, the researchers note. Extreme environmentalists want all wind turbines removed immediately, while more moderate ones want 100% renewable energy as soon as possible. Modern energy is a complex system with – at least partly – conflicting goals: security of supply, environmental protection and energy costs, the study authors argue.
Future market prices are derived from German electricity futures prices on the European Energy Exchange (EEX), and research from various academic, commercial and institutional sources. The researchers note that future electricity prices are affected by higher gas price assumptions and higher carbon certificate prices.
According to the Brandenburg University team, net subsidies in the future will range between EUR 26.7 and 71.8 billion, or 7-17% of total net subsidies.
Pointing out that net support costs for renewables have been high in the past, the researchers state that “most net subsidies have already been paid” and the current low costs for newer installations of wind, onshore and offshore, and onshore PV technologies are economically viable.